Friday, April 16, 2010

Ahhhh .... The Share Price.

"A1investor" says:


With so many leaks re the revised CDC guidelines, make you wonder if it will be a non event when they are released.

Might be steady as she goes until we see the next set of figures from the company.

Personally, I pretty much agree with that. Logic would make me think that anybody that is following this stock seriously would already be aware of the essential content of the CDC Guidelines and they should already be invested. However, logic (well my kind of logic, anyway) doesn't always apply to the stock market. I therefore make no prediction whatsoever about what the Share Price might do as events (such as the release of the CDC Guidelines) occur.

Of course we know that there are a whole bunch of traders out there who spend their lives trying to "second guess" each other. That's their business. It has no impact upon me. (Although I did take advantage of this weeks seller to grab a few more CST shares at a discount). 



To somebody like me (ie somebody who is only ever on the buy side of the Market Depth) the short term movements in the share price are really irrelevant. If CST runs up to $3.80 on the release of the CDC Guidelines it doesn't actually make me any richer. The chances are that even if it does then those who want to take a profit will sell their shares and the price will go down again. It's like a dog chasing it's tail. Well beyond me. I am really interested in the success of the actual business (ie sales and profits). That is what will make me richer because my dividends will go up. 


I'm wondering if we will get a profit guidance announcement in June this year as we did in 2008?


Beautiful weather at the moment. I just put new blades on my ride on and mowed all my lawns - looks a picture.







5 comments:

  1. Forrest - My broker,(who believes that I've got the most unbalanced portfolio that he's ever seen) said that analysts wont look at CST until it gets on their radar at about $4.17. Then it starts getting interesting. Due to getting past "long in the tooth", to the point where they start dropping out, the price is now of relevance to enable me to survive in the manner to which I'm accustomed. ie a glass or two of Mike Press Cab Sav in the evening. Mainsail

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  2. Well, Mainsail, I expect that sometime between now and about February next year your broker's radar will be pulsing over CST and he'll be praising your unbalanced portfolio.

    I think that the price movements over the past several months have indicated that the shareholdings are becoming more concentrated and more tightly held. Friday's trading shows that in spades.
    Cheers
    Puzzled

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  3. Hello, thanks for your blog(s).
    Surely its necessary to mention PE ratio when talking of share price (SP). My understanding is that its difficult to know what an appropriate PE is for a company like Cellestis because it is growing so quickly and one must factor in the future expectations of the market. I am therefore wondering how people make predictions on share price.
    Not all readers of your blog have a financial/investment background and some light on this subject might be useful.
    Lab rat

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  4. Thanks Lab Rat,

    I'll see if I can put together something along those lines.

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  5. PS Lab Rat,

    In the meantime, you might like to look at my explanation of DCF valuations at http://forrestthinks.blogspot.com/p/cst-dcf-valuation-matrix.html (or just click the "DCF Valuation Matrix" link at the top of the page.

    ReplyDelete