Those of you who have been reading my scribblings for some time may remember that a few years back I published a document entitled "CST One Page Summary (OPS)".
I have now attempted to bring that document up to date and present it here.
This document is not intended to be the be all and end all of an analysis of the Cellestis investment. It is really just intended as an introduction to the essence of this investment. Clearly nobody would make an investment decision based upon this but it may provide a good starting point for somebody that has not previously been aware of this company.
As always, feel free to copy, repost, distribute or bin as you see fit.
One Page Summary
G'day Babs,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your kind comments.
You make a good point about how world economics might impact CST.
Firstly, I have to say that I do not pretend to have any idea as to whether the world is going to go into another recession or whether the opposite is true. Frankly, I don't even reckon the expert pundits even know. As they always say "If you put two economists in a room they will come out with three different opinions". At the moment it seems like everybody is continually running from one side of a ship to another.
However, if we were to assume that GFC2 hits then I would imagine that the sales growth of CST would be impacted. As you say, health budgets are the last to be cut. It may be that because QFT appears more expensive that TST (on a cash flow basis) then the migration could be slowed. On the other hand, reduced budgets may result in reduced frontline TB staff for the labour intensive setting, reading and following up of skin testing.
And then Dr. Who may never escape the Pandorica and the entire universe may end!
In the end, personally, all I can do is back a great business.
Another "risk" that I have not mentioned in my OPS is that of Forex. We have already seen how the forex can impact the CST bottom line.
I guess, in summary, the "risks" that we can enumerate are really risks to growth rate, not risks to the survival of the business. With no debt, a clean balance sheet and assured repetitive income the possibility of total business failure is minimal, regardless of what the world throws up.
Hi Forrest,
ReplyDeleteI agree, government austerity measures are a risk to CST sales growth not the viability of the business.
thanks Babs
Thanks very much Forrest for a great snapshot of the company. It will make things that much easier if/when I get into conversation with others about the role and the potential that Cellestis has in the world in diagosing TB.
ReplyDeleteThanks also for all your other efforts and in sharing your time and knowledge with those who may choose to view your site.