Congratulations to Rog who guessed NPAT of $3,133,000 which was also close to the actual NPAT of $3,189,000.
As a group, we didn't do all that well with our Average Sales figure of $21,276,894 and Average NPAT of $4,184,185.
Tuesday, February 16, 2010
Guessing Competition. Results.
Congratulations to Tassie who guessed Sales of $18,226,000 which was exceptionally close to the actual result of $18,207,000.
Congratulations to Rog who guessed NPAT of $3,133,000 which was also close to the actual NPAT of $3,189,000.
As a group, we didn't do all that well with our Average Sales figure of $21,276,894 and Average NPAT of $4,184,185.
Congratulations to Rog who guessed NPAT of $3,133,000 which was also close to the actual NPAT of $3,189,000.
As a group, we didn't do all that well with our Average Sales figure of $21,276,894 and Average NPAT of $4,184,185.
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Forrest,
ReplyDeleteAnother six monthly release of figures, another tipping contest over.
You gave the nod to tassie and rog for the nearest, neatest, correct entry for sales (tassie) and NPAT (rog). But a little further examination would, I think, give St Asaph the overall winner's trophy, or at least a very highly commended.
If you take Tassie's t/over figure, it is out by 0.10%, but NPAT is out by 37.88%, an average of 18.99%. Rog on turnover is out by 13.95% but with NPAT he is out 1.75% - average of 7.85%. St.Asaph was 4.35% out in t/over and l.91% in NPAT - an average of 3.13% error. A very worthy effort.
Mulgoaman.
Forrest thanks for your great work in arranging publication of this excellent Lodge Partners research on Cellestis. Hopefully this will be the first of many more of its type. Cellestis have been flying under the radar for far too long. Graham Kaufman’s knowledge of our company, and where it sits in the TB market is second to none. This report is almost certainly the most accurate I have seen since Cellestis floated in 2001. Certainly time frames for tipping points and attaining X % of the available market is clearly subjective, and all of us have our own views. To my mind, Graeme has been conservative, but then again no shareholder who has been invested in this company since day one, could ever have believed major approvals and guidelines could ever have taken this long. The paragraph below is a wonderfully accurate & clear description of where our diagnostic sits in the real world of active TB v LTBI.
ReplyDelete“Detection of latent tuberculosis is vital in the TB control programs in developed countries, as
it represents a reservoir of potential infection and ultimately frustrates any attempt to
eradicate the disease. It is vital that a sensitive and accurate test for latent infection is
available, particularly for testing high risk groups and for tracing contacts of active TB cases.
In developing countries, by contrast, the need is for good tests for active disease.”
In my opinion, the only small oversight by Graham, is where he discusses future guideline changes (such as the CDC ) where he missed mentioning that UK guidelines are also being revised i.e.,
http://www.nice.org.uk/nicemedia/pdf/TBUpdateDraftScope.pdf
NATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR HEALTH AND
CLINICAL EXCELLENCE
SCOPE
Tuberculosis (update) draft scope for consultation 9th December 2009 to 11th January 2010
The following commercially available assays will be reviewed: • QuantiFERON-TB Gold In-Tube. • QuantiFERON-TB Gold. • T-SPOT.TB. ...
Wr
Thumbs Up
Thanks for the analysis, Mulgoaman. You are correct.
ReplyDeleteThe drug testing stewards have now cleared Tassie, Rog and St. Asaph so we can wrap this up.
I have written to Tassie and Rog and arranged for them each to return one-third of their prize money which will be forwarded to St. Asaph.
G'day Thumbs Up,
ReplyDeleteThank you again.
I also note the excellent post by "Puzzled" on SS where he shows that historically (2007 prediction for 2009) the projections made by Lodge are conservative, rather than overly optimistic.